As competitors prepare to set sail in the 2025 Sydney to Auckland Ocean Race this weekend, meteorologist Dr Roger Badham has released his forecast outlining a dynamic weather pattern across the Tasman Sea — with strong north-westerlies, shifting fronts, and a developing high-pressure system expected to shape the early stages of the race.
The fleet will depart under the influence of a persistent west–northwest flow stretching from New South Wales to New Zealand, continuing through to Monday, 13 October. A cold front is forecast to move off the NSW coast that day and sweep across the Tasman, reaching New Zealand’s North Island by Tuesday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected ahead of the front, with north-westerlies reaching 25–30 knots before easing and shifting southwest behind the change.
By midweek, a high-pressure system will build over the western Tasman, moving slowly eastward toward New Zealand by Friday and Saturday. This system should bring more stable conditions and lighter breezes for the latter half of the race, before another front approaches the North Island early the following week.
The East Australian Current remains the dominant ocean feature, pushing eastward from 153°E to 159°E and potentially providing a favourable boost to yachts heading offshore from Sydney. However, Dr Badham cautions that wind strategy and positioning approaching New Zealand will likely outweigh current effects.
Forecast models differ slightly, with the GFS model predicting stronger pre-frontal winds than the European ECMWF model. Based on the slower EC forecast, estimated race times range from just under three days for the 52-foot Lucky to nearly six days for Cooloola.
It is predicted that competitors can expect a fast and lively start powered by solid north-westerlies, followed by a tactical transition into lighter, variable conditions as high pressure builds toward New Zealand, a classic Tasman challenge for the fleet’s crossing.
