WED 25. 7.30am COFFS RACE 2026
SITUATION WED 25
Yesterday’s 00z run of models all had a single centred low pressure system developing off the south coast during Friday.
This morning (12z runs) all the major models have a complex low developing (ie not single centred) with one centre in close to the coast and rotating around the main low centre off the south coast. The result of a transient low centre to come north on Friday afternoon/night is to generate stronger gale strength SW wind and large waves for the Sydney and Hunter coasts. The situation slowly easing during Saturday as the main low pressure system moves to the central Tasman Sea.
The GFS has the transient low closest to the coast, then axsG with EC furthest offshore and thus with not as strong gale force wind on Sunday evening.
Tomorrow will be 24 hrs closer and the first time the high res axsC model will look at the development along the coast. Should then be able to forecast with good accuracy the wind and seas on Friday afternoon and night south of Sea Rocks where the conditions will be most severe.
MODELS
A short table of the wind and the waves for the waters between Broken Bay and Seal Rocks from Friday midday to Saturday 6am: (local times)
AVERAGE TWS, not gusts. For GFS; axsG; EC; waves ww3; axsG; EC
FRI 27
1200. W/20-25; WNW-W/25-30; W/25-30; 2m/10sec; 2m; 2.6m
1500. WSW/24-28; WNW-W/25-30; WSW/25-30; 2m/10sec; 2m; 2.7m
1800. WSW/30-35; W/30-35; WSW/30-35; 2.5m/9.5sec; 2.5m; 3.1m
2100 SW/35-40; W/35-45; WSW/30-35; 3.5m/9sec; 5m; 3.7m
0000 SW/35-40; SW/40-45; WSW/30-35; 5m/10.5sec; 6m; 4.4m
0300 SW/30-35 SW/35-40; SW/30-40; 6m/12sec; 7m; 5m
0600 SW/25-30 SW/35-40; SW/30-35; 6m/12sec; 6m; 6m
FORECAST (average TWS, not gust)
FRI 27 W-WSW-SW/35-45; showers, particularly offshore
SAT 28 SW-SSW/25-35; few showers – mostly offshore
SUN 29 SW-S-SE/15-20; few showers
HOUSEKEEPING
A few short notes this week leading to the start 1pm on Friday 27.
A dropbox folder has been generated and will have some regular grib files – daily for the next few days, then more frequent during the race.
axsG for the next few days and then axsC for the NSW coast; a small wind file for the race area and a bigger file with extra variables; cloud, rain and msl pressure.
Global models of EC and GFS models, current and waves grib files.
The dropbox link is:
Not necessary to Sign in. Right click or hover over the file you want and there should be an option to download. A ‘log in or Sign up’ box may appear – at the bottom of this dialogue box is a link says: ‘continue with download only’.
The Race Committee have asked me to provide some notes and a forecast for the briefing on Thursday evening. Those notes will also be posted on dropbox.
End
Roger Badham