THU 26. 7.15am – COFFS RACE 2026

SITUATION THU 26
Latest model runs continue with a low pressure system to develop off the south coast later today. The rapidly intensifying low pressure will likely be complex tomorrow; complex indicating a multi centred area of low pressure with transient low pressure system(s) rotating around the main developing centre and area of cold air aloft. The trough line and probable transient area of low pressure will tighten the W-SW gradient wind along the coast between Jervis Bay and Hunter coast areas. The low pressure will become single centred on Saturday and move further away from the NSW coast.
Max wind between Broken Bay and Seal Rocks is forecast to occur later Friday afternoon and night with SW/40-45 kts and gusts of 50-55 kts. Max waves (SWH) of 7-9 metres from SSW in the same region from Friday night to Saturday midday before waves slowly abate.

Most global models have the strongest wind of SW/50-55 kts (sustained wind) just south of Sydney; this band of strong wind from Batemans Bay to Sydney will generate the largest 8-9m waves to propagate further north to the Central NSW coastal areas peaking early Saturday morning.

The BOM axsC model has a small low centre 70 miles east of Broken Bay at 6pm on Friday night with W/40-45 kts in the north off the Hunter Coast and SSW/50-55 kts wind off the Sydney and Illawarra coast at that time.

MODELS
A table of the wind and the waves for the waters between Broken Bay and Seal Rocks from Friday midday to Saturday midday: (local times) GFS (NOAA); axs (BOM/UK); EC (ECMWF)

AVERAGE TWS, not gusts. GFS; axsG/axsC; EC WAVES (swh) ww3; EC; axs
FRI 27
1200. WSW/20-30; W/25-30; W/25-30; 2.3m/11sec; 2.7m/7sec/S; 2.5m
1500. WSW/25-30; WSW/30-35; WSW/30-35; 2.5m/10sec; 2.9m/7sec/SSW; 2.7m
1800. WSW/30-35; WSW/45-50; WSW/30-35; 3m/9.5sec; 3.3m/7sec/SSW; 3.5m
2100 SW/40-50; WSW/40-45; WSW/30-35; 4.5m/9sec; 4m/8sec/S; 4m
0000 SW/40-45; SW/35-45; WSW/30-35; 5m/10.5sec; 5m/9sec/SSW; 6m
0300 SW/30-40; SW/35-40; SW/30-40; 6m/12sec; 6m/11sec/S; 7m
0600 SW/30-35; SW/30-40; SW/30-35; 6.5m/12sec; 7m/12sec/S; 8m
0900 SW/25-30; SW/30-35; SW/25-30; 6m/12sec; 7m/12sec/S; 7.5m
1200 SW/20-30; SSW/30-35; SW/25-30; 5.5m/12sec; 6m/11sec/SSE; 7m

FORECAST (average TWS, not gust) for Hunter and lower Macquarie coasts.
FRI 27 W-WSW-SW/35-45; showers, particularly offshore
SAT 28 SW-SSW/25-35; few showers – mostly offshore
SUN 29 SW-S/20-25; few showers
MON 30 S then SE/10-15; shower or 2

End